Managing change in the British Airways

Managing change in the British Airways Contemporary business firms face unique opportunities and challenges in their search for survival and growth. British Airways, the UKs flag carrier airline, has constantly had to deal with numerous external and internal challenges, ever since its formation in 1974. BA has suffered harsh financial losses during 2009 and 2010; its cumulative net losses for the two years amount to around 800 million GBP. The organisational management recognises the need to bring in a significant strategic change in order to grow and improve its market share and competitive advantage. The companys change initiatives, however, face numerous obstacles. This report examines the need for strategic change at British Airways. This is followed by discussions on the requisites for successful organisational change, the barriers faced by the corporation in bringing about such change, and recommendations on the way forward. 1.1. Overview Modern day organisations face unprecedented opportunities and challenges in their quest for business success and competitive advantage. Environmental change of astonishing and global dimensions has changed the landscape of contemporary business (Hughes, 2006, p 14). Such environmental change, which commenced in earnest after the Second World War with the decolonisation of huge populations, accelerated in later years with the growth and subsequent collapse of the Soviet bloc, the reunification of Germany, the formation of the European Union, economic liberalisation across developing countries, the emergence of China and India as economic and political powers, astonishing developments in technology, and of course globalisation (Hughes, 2006, p 14). Whilst changes in global environmental conditions and advances in science and technology opened up numerous opportunities to business organisations, they also resulted in the creation of numerous challenges that threatened the operations and the very existence of established business firms (Hughes, 2006, p 14). Much of the modern day challenges to business organisations come from intensified competition, the emergence of numerous new products and substitutes, the development of equal quality but low-cost production and service centres in the emerging economies and from technological advances (Henry, 2008, p 44). The Japanese focus on fuel efficient small cars, pulled the rug from beneath the feet of huge automobile makers like General Motors and Ford, dethroning them from their positions of undisputed global leaders of the automobile sector (Henry, 2008, p 44). Low cost mining of Rare Earth Metals in China led to the closing of mines of such metals in the US and other countries and to concentration of 97% of global production of Rare Earth Metals in China (Areddy, 2010, p 11). Liberalisation of travel and free movement of people across the world for purposes of business and travel resulted in the emergence of low cost airlines like Ryan Air and Easy Jet in the UK and others in different par ts of the world, causing body blows to established airline giants like British Airways, Air France, and Swiss Air, some of which, (like Swiss Air), closed shop (Lynch, 2006, p 52). British Airways, the flag carrier airline of the UK has constantly faced external and internal challenges, ever since its inception in the early 1970s (British Airways, 2011, p 1). Formed by the coming together of BOAC, BEA, Cambrian Airways and North East Airlines in 1974, the organisation worked as a public sector corporation for 13 years until it was privatised by UKs Conservative government in 1987 (British Airways, 2011, History). British Airways (BA) has had to face numerous environmental challenges in its history, both as a public and as a private sector carrier. Such challenges have occurred on account of reasons like intense competition from other airlines in its domestic and global operations, erosion of market share on account of entry of low cost airlines, global terrorism, pandemics like SARS and Bird Flu, and natural calamities (British Airways, 2011, Annual Reports). The terrorist strikes of September 11, 2001, resulted in a huge downturn in local and international tra vel, resulting in the collapse of numerous airlines and in significant financial losses (approximately 200 million GBP in 2002) for British Airways, which lost (British Airways, 2011, Annual Report 2002). The volcanic explosion in Iceland, which resulted in ash filled skies and disruption of flights in early 2010, also resulted in significant revenue losses (Milmo, 2010, p 1). The last two years, 2009 (losses of 400 million GBP before taxes) and 2010 (losses of 530 million GBP before taxes) have been truly alarming for the organisation (Milmo, 2010, p 1). It also needs to be realised that whilst thousands of shareholders enthusiastically subscribed to the companys shares at the time of its privatisation, they have gained very little, by way of dividends or market value appreciation, in the last 24 years (Hosking, 2009, p 1). The management of British Airways recognises the need for the Airline to change significantly in response to various environmental challenges in order to grow and enhance market share and competitive advantage. A number of change initiatives have also been introduced by the company in various strategic and operational areas with varying degrees of success. 1.2. Objective This report examines the need for strategic change at British Airways. Such examination is followed by discussions on the requisites for successful organisational change and the barriers faced by the corporation in bringing about such change. The report closes with a section on recommendations and conclusions. 2. Strategic Change at British Airways Modern day organisations, as discussed in the preceding section, need to change on account of various internal and external environmental reasons, in order to achieve organisational growth, enhance productivity and profitability, and enhance competitive advantage (Cameron Green, 2004, p 31). Such strategic change could be needed to exploit new opportunities as well to obtain protection from threats. Such strategic change could also be necessary to break out from existing conditions of financial distress or operational or strategic deficiencies (Cameron Green, 2004, p 31). The importance of bringing about strategic change has been emphasised by numerous management academics and experts, who have repeatedly addressed its importance for modern day organisations (Cameron Green, 2004, p 31). Peter Drucker in fact drives the point home by stating that it is the responsibility of every responsible manager to constantly search for ways in which he or she can beneficially contribute to the process of strategic change (Stein, 2010, p 7). Whilst organisations clearly have to engage in strategic change, if not out of choice than out of necessity, their track record of success in its realisation is poor (Balogun, 2001, p 2). Many senior managements fail to understand that implementation of strategic change, i.e. the conversion of plans to reality, constitutes the most difficult part of the change process (Balogun, 2001, p 2). Such change can become possible only when individuals working in organisations change their behavioural ways and patterns and align them with new strategic objectives (Balogun, 2001, p 2). Strategic change is not new to BA. Numerous case studies detail BAs success in change management. The organisation engaged in strategic downsizing by practically 40% in 1981 and 1983 (Docshare, 2009, pp 27 to 30). Privatisation in 1987 called for the bringing about of significant cultural change. The adoption of the Putting People First programme in the 1980s aimed to align organisational working with new competitive realities and modify the behaviour of customers, who were deserting the airline in droves (Docshare, 2009, p 36). Recent years have also witnessed a number of change initiatives, primarily in response to intense competition by low cost carriers like Ryan Air and Easy Jet and altered customer expectations. The commissioning of Terminal 5 at Heathrow, which encountered significant negative publicity in account of opening day operational goof-ups, is one such example. The company is currently operating with a multi-pronged business strategy that includes (a) up gradation of customer experience, (b) modernisation of aircraft fleet, (c) offering new services, (d) managing its cost base and (e) increasing corporate social responsibility in areas of environment (British Airways, 2011, Annual Report 2008, Chairmans Speech).Whilst this report does not deal with an elaborate strategic analysis of the company, the most important factors about its internal and external environment, as well as its current performance are bulleted below. The organisation operates in an environment of intense regulation and heightened security because of terrorist threats. Its sales revenues and profitability are under threat because of the global economic crisis, slow projected global economic growth, the weakening of the pound, and oil prices, which have started soaring again. With the population of its home market ageing steadily, the organisation will be under stress to achieve the same amount of revenues from existing customers. With passengers becoming increasingly aware and vocal about their rights and expected service levels, BA continues to be under pressure on account of underperformance in areas of cancelled flights and poor baggage handling. The management and the cabin crew union are in direct confrontation with each other. The organisation has suffered severe financial losses during the last two years; with cumulative net losses for 2009 and 2010 near 800 million GBP. The organisations biggest threat, now and in the coming years is in the area of revenues, sales, costs and profits. With competition likely to intensify and global economic growth forecasted to be low, the company urgently needs to engage in activities for improving its financial viability (Milmo, 2010, p 1). Cost management and reduction is a critical element of organisational strategy. Whilst all airlines are equally affected by fluctuations in fuel costs, large economic and passenger movement trends, terrorism and global political instability, BAs labour and workforce costs are significantly higher than its competitors (Carley, 2009, p 1). It is relevant to note in this context that BA employees earn more than 2 times the remuneration earned by Virgin Air workers (Robertson, 2009, p 1). BA has adopted a strategy of cost management and reduction to overcome these financial challenges. Whilst the organisation is still financially strong, further periods of poor performance could well strain its financial resources (Carley, 2009, p 1). The major area of cost reduction relates to remuneration and employment terms of its employees, especially its cabin crew. 3. Change Management Strategies Whilst BAs immediate and imperative change strategy focuses on the critical area of financial viability, the route is extremely challenging because of its need for considerable employee sacrifice. It needs to be appreciated that the organisation has initiated a number of other strategic changes to improve customer satisfaction and satisfaction, including the commissioning of terminal 5 at Heathrow, (McGinn, 2009, p 2), and the need to achieve financial viability has now assumed important dimensions. Change management theories focus on three important dimensions, namely (a) the planning and implementation of the change process, (b) the involvement of the organisation in the proposed strategic change, and (c) the role of leadership in the change process for bringing about of successful strategic change (Hayes, 2006, p 71). Both Lewin and Kotter stress upon the need to implement change in a planned process that takes the organisation from its current stage to its desired state through clearly demarcated phases. Lewin states that change management can be best achieved through the planned application of three phases, namely unfreezing, implementing of change and refreezing the organisation in its new state through institutionalisation of implemented changes (Lewin, 2005, p 9). Kotter, whilst basically following Lewins theory, feels that the process can be better achieved through the implementation of change in 7 stages (Kotter, 1996, p 7). Change management experts secondly call for the committed involvement of organisational staff for the successful implementation of strategic change proposals (Bovey Hede, 2001, p 373). Many proposed strategic changes can result in resistance from organisational employees on account of causes like (a) incomplete knowledge of the proposed change, (b) ignorance about change objectives and benefits, (c) lack of belief in change benefits, and (d) change associated threats to the individual and collective wellbeing of organisational employees (Bovey Hede, 2001, p 373). Whilst ignorance about the nature and objectives of change can be set right through appropriately designed and powerful communication, tackling change related threat perceptions of employees is totally another matter (Bovey Hede, 2001, p 373). Such threat perceptions could arise because of apprehensions about (a) change in working condition, (b) change in terms of employment, (c) change in location, (d) requirement to tak e up new functions, (e) need to learn new skills, (f) loss of remuneration, and (g) loss of employment (Bovey Hede, 2001, p 373). The third critical factor in bringing about successful strategic change concerns the role of organisational leaderships (Hayes, 2006, p 78). Organisational leaders must clearly outline the proposed strategic changes, communicate the change objectives and the reasons for such change to organisational members, and bring about intense involvement of organisational employees in the change process (Hayes, 2006, p 78). Such involvement is essentially done by leading from the front and through visible commitment to the change process. Effective leaders identify and encourage change champions throughout the organisation to support the change process, engage in constant and transparent communication about the benefits of change and obtain he support of the overwhelming majority of organisational employees to the change process (Hayes, 2006, p 78). 4. Barriers to Change at British Airways BA has asked individual employees to accept temporary earning reductions and has engaged in negotiations with unions for pay cuts, alterations in employment terms, and reduction in its workforce. The companys management asked employees in June 2009 to work without basic pay for a maximum period of 4 weeks over six months, take a year of unpaid leave, and change from fulltime to part time employment for a period that could stretch up to a year. It is proving to be difficult to bring about strategic changes for effecting reduction in employee costs at the airline because of intense opposition by well organised and united cabin crew members to proposed changes (Carley, 2009, p 1). Whilst BAs pilots have agreed to some reduction in remuneration, the cabin crew has strongly opposed the changes and has constantly threatened to take industrial action if such changes are implemented (Carley, 2009, p 1). Effective strategic change, it is accepted, is difficult to implement without employee involvement and participation. Organisational leaderships try to bring about such involvement through communication, creation of awareness and training. The involvement and agreement of even a significant proportion of employees in the change process, along with constructive empathy for employees likely to be adversely affected by the change process, helps organisations to implement change processes that include termination, salary reduction and downsizing. It is necessary to understand that BAs cabin crew, whose agreement and involvement is important for effecting strategic change, are strongly united in their opposition to organisational plans and strategies (Neilcaff, 2011, p 1). The strength of their unity has been evidenced in the past when their strikes have resulted in significant stoppages and financial losses (Neilcaff, 2011, p 1). The last two years have been marked by intense confrontation between the management and the cabin crew on this issue, with no constructive result. The first half of the current year has been spent in the shadow of a proposed strike during the Easter holidays (Neilcaff, 2011, p 1). Some part of this problem can also be attributed to the current organisational leadership at British Airways. The leadership style of Willie Walsh, the existing CEO could also be a barrier to the change process. Walshs autocratic and uncompromising style is not encouraging employee stakeholders to acknowledge and embrace the required change. Other leaders, like Schultz at Starbucks, have been more successful at driving change programmes. 5. Recommendations and Conclusions The course of urgently required strategic change at British Airways is being thwarted by constant stand-offs between the management and employee unions, even as the organisation continues to be buffeted by a difficult competitive environment, soaring fuel prices and intense competition. It is relevant to note that the principal owners of the organisation, i.e. the shareholders, have received little benefits over the years, even as two sets of agents, the management and the employees, have obtained significant financial benefits and continue to wrangle over their individual interests and egos. It would appear to be opportune for shareholder organisations and even the government to step in, appoint neutral experts, obtain suggestions for strategic change, and push such measures through, even at the risk of industrial action and financial losses. The failure to take firm action and drive change forward could well have catastrophic repercussions for the company.

Governmental Purpose :: essays research papers

Webster’s dictionary defines government as authoritative direction or control. However, many believe there is a more philosophical approach to the purpose of government. Thomas Jefferson wrote that "The essential principles of our Government...form the bright constellation which has gone before us and guided our steps through an age of revolution and reformation.† In this he refers to the creation of our democratic nation as a guide through the perils of our past. Government is often thought of as simply the ruling of our nation, but it is much more than that. It has provided us with a nation proud of its commitment to justice and freedom. Although leaders may have the authority to impose penalty and law through their political power, in a democracy the people are allowed to be actively involved in the government. John Locke defined political power as â€Å"†¦a right of making laws, with penalties of death, and consequently all less penalties for the regulating and preserving of property, and of employing the force of the community in the execution of such laws, and in the defense of the commonwealth from foreign injury, and all this only for the public good.† Political power is most often only deemed to be in the interest of the citizens, such as in countries like China, where government officials claim to know what the people want; however, may not make decisions according to their will. The more preferable form of democracy is a representative one, in which the politicians compete for votes in organized elections. Yet, in any commonwealth the want is a central power that works for the people. When government is applied in a positive sense, justice is served and democracy is in its purest form. It is the goal of government to lead our country in a fashion that does not provide a monopoly of power or authority to any single group or individual. John Locke believed in â€Å"A state†¦of equality, wherein all the power and jurisdiction is reciprocal, no one having more than another.

Ebay Market Share

How to dominate the online auction market Jeffrey Phillips †¢ Brian Somok †¢ Xiaoke Zheng Executive Summary Background eBay Inc history: September 1995: funded as a sole proprietorship. May 1996: incorporated in California. April 1998: reincorporated in Delaware. September 1998: completion of initial public offering October 2002: acquired PayPal Product Online Auction: Every day, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year, millions of people from all over the world go shopping at online auctions. This is not an exaggeration – eBay, with a 76% share of the auction site market, reports 42. million users and a growth factor of 100% per Year Porter’s Five Forces Analysis Rivalry Rivalry is very intense. Yahoo had to give up Japan and Australia online auction sites in 2003 because of low margin in this market even if Yahoo made great investment in these two sites beforehand. Number of firms Online auction firms: www. eBay. com, www. overstock. com, www. ubid. c om, www. yahoo. com, www. amazon. com, www. CQout. com, www. bidville. com, etc. The large number of firms in this market reflects the intense competition among those sites. Margin profit is decreased to a relatively low level. Bay could still survive because of its scale of economy and good reputation. However, eBay’s growth in 2004 was much smaller than in 2003. Shareholders put much pressure on eBay, and eBay had to readjust its pricing on varied services on the short run in order to satisfy people’s short term expectation. However, he is risking his long term revenue and reputation. Fixed costs Essentially, fixed costs on online auction market are rather low: purchasing programming technology patents, web, administration, credit, accounting, staff, and daily operations. Product differentiation Differentiation depends on how the transaction is performed. There is not too much difference among different online auction companies in web processing efficiency and shipping efficiency, but eBay is more convenient than others, due to their lengthy expertise in the market. eBay differentiated itself by integrating PayPal payment system, which is famous for its security, cheap rate and network utility. eBay offers a cheap transaction fee rate, as well. It has greatest number of users by far, which offers excellent network utility. Amazon used to be a substitute product provider. However, since 1999 Amazon added auction module in its business. eBay likewise encroached on Amazon’s niche by adopting fixed price functions like â€Å"buy it now† button and purchasing www. half. com. eBay and Amazon have been less different and therefore rivalry has increased a little. However, there is still an obvious gap between them in terms of business model and software development. Amazon built its reputation with high-end users. It has a friendly and succinct transaction interface, which offers superior product mix. Amazon is utilizing Porter’s value strategy and has not changed this for years. On the other hand, eBay is a large community of small buyers and sellers who deal with single-item transactions at negotiable prices. It has a created cost advantage by scale of economy. Most goods traded on eBay are secondhand, and eBay’s inventory changes more rapidly than Amazon’s. eBay is actually taking Porter’s cost strategy. Different business models result in different financial performance. eBay generated $441 million profits in 2003 on $2. 17 billion revenue compared with Amazon's much smaller $35 million profit on far more revenue — $5. 3 billion. eBay has a more liquid and efficient financial structure. Besides, these two companies are both valued by their own network/community. Most customers don’t switch between auction and fixed price retail very often partly because they are rooted in the community culture of either network. They don’t have incentives to change their current method of transaction if it is satisfactory. Different business models and different networks are enough to place these two companies in different niches without too much rivalry. Barriers of New Entrants New entrants seize every opportunity to expand their market share. eBay still has a dominant market share of online auction. His reputation is a sweeping force in maintaining his good performance. However, eBay has to be cautious in every marketing decision. His mistakes will be taken advantage by these new comers. For example, www. bidville. com , an online auction site, recently experienced a dramatic increase in new member registration after eBay announced they would raise their listing fees for sellers. eBay took a prompt response by resuming the listing fee back to the original level. eBay didn’t win anything in this price adjustment and readjustment, but eroded his reputation. Essentially in this online auction market, whoever has the most name recognition, wins the game. Right now, Bidville’s disadvantage in name recognition puts Bidville out as a possible alternative to eBay’s market space temporarily. eBay should think about more to maintain his name recognition on the long run. Patents eBay does not hold any key patented technology. A new entrant could easily emulate eBay’s interface. High cost of entry eBay’s most effective barriers are its large network and credible reputation. It is rather difficult for a new entrant to build a new network starting with no users. We can verify this by how new air ticketing companies grow. ) The only way to start a network from a reasonable size is to derive an online auction market from an existing online website company which already has a network, just as Yahoo and Amazon did. A new entrant must also demonstrate creditability and capability to customers and payment providers (credit car d, PayPal, eWallet, etc. ). New entrants must prove their guarantees of efficient and safe transactions, to both buyers and sellers. Why would buyers and sellers bother to switch from a sound existing online auction site to a new one? Incentives to switch include discounts, coupons, accumulative reimbursement like frequent miles, complements from other services an entrant or their cooperating company offers, and higher-quality service in terms of timely and elegant shipping. All of these are trivial but not necessarily effective sales methods. Effectiveness depends on a comprehensive sales strategy which is based on keen insight of business dynamics and human group dynamics. It is hard for a new entrant to find an experienced strategist, and even if it does, there is still no guarantee to gain market share. This market is basically first-mover dominant. Furthermore, it is unlikely for payment companies like credit card companies or other electronic payment providers to support a new entrant, because profitability is unclear. The revenue for successful new entrants will be low at the beginning and stable on the long run. However, expenses will be extremely high at the beginning. A new company rarely survives within a short term unless it has a very generous percentage of leverage or a large amount of venture capital, and leverage is only available for public companies. Therefore, a new entrant can likely only be an existing company that operates in other markets. It should either be sufficiently self-funded or have a very strong, persuasive income statement and business plan to prove liquidity and gain leverage. Since the internet bubble, venture capitalists are very cautious in investing in IT companies, especially Business-to-Customers or Business-to-Business ecommerce companies. (Check the performance of eBay during and after internet bubbles. ) Essentially, the scale of economy is very obvious in the online auction market. The value of an online network is proportional to the number of users squared. The scale of economy will naturally lead to a monopoly. A new entrant should either license a fraud prevention system or employ a third-party payment platform company that already integrates fraud prevention system in its service. Brand loyalty First of all, eBay has been operating in this market since the beginning of e-commerce. A lot of e-commerce companies have failed since the internet bubble. eBay has successfully survived because of the convenience and simplicity of its service. It has gained popularity and built loyalty among customers. It has a secure identity system, and every user has a record of past transactions. eBay has a sound rating system for every buyer and seller to establish credibility amongst the users. eBay’s user accounts work like passports of their personal credit and reliability. Most customers of eBay are long-term users; therefore, they will not attempt fraud in their transactions. If they do, their rating suffers. All customers tend to trust each other because transactions are transparent to the 3rd party supervisor, eBay. eBay has successfully turned their online auction site into a community which has a cohesive culture. Photos of items to be sold greatly enhance the community value and establish amiability and trust between sellers and buyers. (eBay’s success has influenced Amazon to adopt a similar policy in its online transactions recently. ) New entrants are competing against a community as well as a company. It is rather difficult to build a new culture and a new community. There might be some other specialized auction niches available, but eBay offers nearly any product available. For example, eBay has online auctions for cars. However, since cars are large purchases, people tend to be cautious in purchasing them. They must inspect the cars in person, and the buyers and sellers tend to haggle in person. Online auctions don’t seem conducive to the secondhand car market. As one would expect, eBay doesn’t have much revenue from car transactions, and any other online car auction websites are not likely to generate high revenues. Such specialized auction markets have uncertain viability. In the example of a car transaction, there are two types of creditability involved. One is buyers’ trust of eBay: Will eBay protect the buyers’ privacy? The other is buyers’ trust of sellers: Will sellers defraud the buyers or exaggerate the quality of their cars? Shipping is also a major cost in this transaction. Most buyers obviously favor in-person transactions. There is little market space for online auction providers. In fact, there are free online bulletin boards that provide used car sale information. They make it difficult for paid online car auctions to exist at all. Mostly, the viability of such specialized auction markets is doubtful. Therefore, there is limited chance for new entrants. Substitute Products The most important merit of fixed-price online retail is that a buyer does not have to wait for an auction to end. It is appealing to shoppers who prefer straightforward sales. They value their time more than the small price change. It is basically a tradeoff between time and price. Since online auction and fixed online retail target people with different personalities, these two products essentially don’t conflict with each other. eBay expanded its market by adding fixed-price features to its online transactions, such as â€Å"Buy It Now†. Half. com is a fixed price online retail web site which is owned by eBay. This shows that eBay is flexible in its business model. On the other hand, Amazon, a traditional online fixed-price retail web site, launched its auction feature in 1999. Here, fixed-price retail acts somewhat like a complement. However, it is a complement only when a company is involved in both types of sales. It is especially beneficial for the company’s network utility. eBay expanded its community (network) by adding fixed price retail feature, as Amazon did by adding auctions. Both of them successfully combined these two functions together, which merged these two markets into one, and gave customers greater convenience by allowing them to decide which way to purchase goods impromptu. However, there is less differentiation between eBay and Amazon. Traditional retail is more prevalent when the buyer must check the product in person or shipping is difficult or expensive. eBay has had to build a strong creditability by making sure all the descriptions of online items to be sold are precise, complete and correct. Without this reliability, customers would switch to traditional retail stores. For those goods which are hard to price without observation, eBay cannot supplant traditional retail. This is particularly true for specialized items such as cars, jewelries, and plastic surgeries, all of which have too many details to be taken care of online. Online transactions seem impossible for these goods. The switching cost from online auction to traditional retail or fixed-price online is essentially high. For fixed-price online, sellers have to pay the storage fee for Amazon’s storage plant. For traditional retail, sellers have to pay for the storage fee and shelf rental fee. These extra fees, which are switching costs, are enough to discourage single item sellers, who are main customer category of eBay, to switch. Buyer Power Customer’s price sensitivity Online auctions don’t charge sellers for storage of their goods. Fixed-price sites might charge sellers for storage. Traditional retailers incur overhead costs. Sellers have incentives to sell via online auction. On the other hand, online auctions mainly deal with unpackaged new products or secondhand products. Most buyers of such products are familiar with eBay, so sellers are more prone to sell via online auction. Buyer bargaining power is weakened. Customer’s negotiating power As I analyzed above, eBay is a large network of small buyers and sellers who mainly deal with single-item sales. A seller generally sells one item to one buyer on eBay, so eBay has high prices and high margins when providing services for many buyers and sellers. Online auction site, recently experienced a dramatic increase in new member registration after eBay announced they would raise their listing fees for sellers. eBay took a prompt response by resuming the listing fee back to the original level. eBay didn’t win anything in this price adjustment and readjustment, but eroded his reputation. Essentially in this online auction market, whoever has the most name recognition, wins the game. Right now, Bidville’s disadvantage in name recognition puts Bidville out as a possible alternative to eBay’s market space temporarily. Bay should think about more to maintain his name recognition on the long run. Patents eBay does not hold any key patented technology. A new entrant could easily emulate eBay’s interface. Buyer Power Customer’s price sensitivity Online auctions don’t charge sellers for storage of their goods. Fixed-price sites might charge sellers for storage. Traditional retailers incur overhead cost s. Sellers have incentives to sell via online auction. On the other hand, online auctions mainly deal with unpackaged new products or secondhand products. Most buyers of such products are familiar with eBay, so sellers re more prone to sell via online auction. Buyer bargaining power is weakened. Customer’s negotiating power As I analyzed above, eBay is a large network of small buyers and sellers who mainly deal with single-item sales. A seller generally sells one item to one buyer on eBay, so eBay has high prices and high margins when providing services for many buyers and sellers. Supplier Power Suppliers to eBay offer technology patent, legal support for intellectual property, and fraud prevention systems. eBay has great pressure to prevent fraud, since its reputation is at stake. Buyers and sellers care about very much about their security. Online auction fraud in 2004 made up 16% of all consumer complaints last year, and 48% in the subset of internet-related complaints, topping the list. eBay has 0. 01% fraud rate of all transactions, but these isolated incidents receive wide media coverage, which discourages many potential customers. eBay is still improving its fraud prevention system. The fraud prevention system is launched by Microsoft Inc. and Visa International Inc. As this system is necessary to eBay, it has little leverage to negotiate a better price. Many online retail systems need fraud prevention system, but there is only one supplier in the market. It has great bargaining power. Complements PayPal, as an online payment solution, is a good complement of eBay’s online auction business. PayPal is a neutral intermediary based on the financial infrastructure of bank accounts and credit cards, supported by a proprietary fraud prevention system. Transactions on PayPal are of low risk to both sellers and buyers. PayPal accepts money from the buyer in one of the three ways. Charging the buyer’s credit card Debiting the buyer’s checking account Charging from the buyer’s PayPal account. The buyer can always send check to his/her PayPal account. Then PayPal will email the seller about the payment made by the buyer. The seller will receive money in one of the three ways. The seller might have his own PayPal account. The payment will directly transfer to his/her account. The seller might receive a check from PayPal. PayPal directly deposits the payment into the seller’s checking account. Buyers care about security. Buyers’ credit card numbers are only shown to PayPal. That is safer than online payment directly by credit card. Buyers also care about the cost. For transactions between PayPal customers, there's no transaction fee. PayPal makes money on the float – when customers’ money sits in their account, PayPal is collecting interest on it. Customers generally don’t care about the interest that PayPal collects on their deposits. Customers also care about ease of use. PayPal is one of the simplest services for online transactions. All a buyer has to do is to provide his/her name, e-mail address, credit card information, and billing address. For business accounts on PayPal, merchants are charged a 2. 2% discount rate + 30 cents on the transaction. It is better than the rate charged by merchant banks for accepting credit cards, in most cases. eBay Micro Strategies Increase brand recognition Expand the auction market by introducing PayPal to more online auction markets Credit card companies charge more for Internet-enabled merchant accounts (the accounts the merchants need to accept credit card payments on the Internet), because of the high cost to main security. Therefore, credit cards become too expensive for smaller purchases. PayPal might negotiate with credit card companies for smaller fees for their subscribers. They can cooperate to share the market in the following way: Merchant accounts on PayPal will be charged less by credit companies than those on other online payment platforms. Therefore it can increase the number of small purchases on eBay auction. Nowadays, credit cards are the primary means of purchasing air tickets and recording frequent flier miles. eBay should enter the air ticketing markets. It definitely can offer the same service with PayPal. PayPal should cooperate with more airlines and online ticketing websites. If they can integrate PayPal into ticket sales websites, eBay will have a huge potential market in air ticketing and also increase its network utility. eBay should acquire a greater online auction market share by educating online customers that PayPal is the online currency. Yahoo’s wallet failed in the online marketplace. It was not easy to establish their own online payment platform, partly because the online payment concept goes against Yahoo’s traditional business model. PayPal should make use of its competitive advantage and offer Yahoo and other websites its specialized solutions. Perfect its proprietary fraud prevention system, which is essential to its success. eBay should let its customers, cooperative online transaction sites, online airline ticketing sites, and credit card companies all feel that transactions through eBay will lower their costs and be more valuable. Bay should cooperate with shipping companies, and make its online transactions more lucrative eBay should work with Phish Report Network and other anti-phishing organizations more efficiently in order to prevent fake online auction sites taking its market share and damaging the whole market’s reputation eBay should work with software developers to improve the s ecurity, efficiency, and adaptability of its database. eBay should convince customers that there is no intentional bidding up behavior involved in its online auction practice Develop real name feature for customers. Put some restrictions on new sellers in expensive merchandise transaction or large volume sale until they have a good track record. Expand to international market, decrease national boundary barriers in terms of payment (credit card/PayPal) and shipping. Cooperate with local equivalent companies or localize by itself. Mediate between buyers and seller at Security Center. Respect both sides’ privacy. Solve conflicts in conservative way. Don’t take risk of eBay’s reputation. eBay Today eBay is the world’s foremost online marketplace. Through reliable customer service, efficient information exchange, and by utilizing the latest technology, eBay has created an auction-based market community of an efficiency unheard of prior to the internet revolution. Competitive Advantage eBay has used its first-mover advantage to establish itself as the most reliable and, more importantly, largest auction house on or off the internet. In 2003 alone, more than 30 million people exchanged over $20 billion. Due to the size and diversity of its user base, eBay is able to offer a wider selection of merchandise than any online retailer. This is made feasible by the virtual nature of eBay’s market: sellers can market obscure items to a global market as easily as and more cheaply than they could put an ad in their local paper. Famous for matching buyers and sellers across the world with the most extreme items, eBay has developed incalculable value in its brand name. eBay has become a household word synonymous with an eclectic online marketplace. eBay comes to the mind of any buyer looking for that rare or rarely-cheap item; any seller hoping to get rid of practically anything knows a buyer is lurking somewhere on eBay. The site has become an easily identifiable rallying point akin to a popular dance club on a global scale: everyone who’s anyone is there—and everyone else too. eBay’s Macro Strategy eBay seeks to maintain a high level of consumer patronage by capitalizing on its unique positioning as an internet marketplace. Globalization. Since eBay is a virtual marketplace, eBay can establish language localized sites in other countries that have access eBay’s full auction database. Since the seller handles the shipping details, each seller may determine the extent to which they enter the global market. Bay has already expanded into 150 countries around the world. International transactions require little additional bookkeeping cost while their benefit to the consumer is enormous: every buyer and seller has access to the largest market possible. Communication By allowing buyers and sellers to meet and communicate online, eBay is able to minimize the costs of remote market research and individual exchanges of information across states and borders. This interplay is essential to mutually amicable transactions on which eBay is based. To encourage fair transactions eBay provides an efficient feedback system to allow buyers and sellers to benefit from collective experience, giving customers a strong social incentive to honor each transaction. Integration Through its acquisition of PayPal eBay gained not only market share, but also vertical integration key to its long-term success. By embracing the payment method most commonly used on its site rather than forcing an unpopular one on its user base, eBay has not only retained the existing PayPal user base but expanded to those consumers previously unsure of which method to use. In 2003 there were 40 million PayPal accounts—almost twice as many as the previous year—and these customers transferred $12 billion across 38 countries. Diversification In addition to normal auction bidding, eBay now offers a Buy-it-Now option. Sellers set fixed maximum prices at which the auction will close before it begins. This attracts auction-wary consumers from other e-commerce sites outside of the strict auction market and effectively competes with amazon. com and froogle. com for fixed-price transactions. By allowing independent sellers to maintain storefronts online, eBay seeks to extend its position to include an even wider range of transactions, thus not only broadening its appeal but securing ties to more conservative consumer bases. The Future of eBay Industry Trends What originally began as a small industry of auctions for collectibles has mushroomed into a behemoth encompassing individual sellers, small businesses, and large retailers. The e-commerce industry is constantly growing, and many businesses rely on the reputation of eBay or one of their competitors to sell their products. As the market grows, a wider demographic range of consumers will be purchasing an increasing number of products online. For example, teenagers are the target consumers of very recent products such as cell phone ring tones and games, many of which are available exclusively online. As such varied consumer groups are emerging in the online market, there is more room for differentiation; perhaps some niches are being created. Therefore, the barriers to entry will decrease as the market expands. Competitive Trends eBay has a solid foothold as the canonical online auction site. They have a niche as an enormous community with an extremely high success rate of matching buyers and sellers. eBay is distinguished by its availability of single, used, and/or rare items, and for its floating prices. They are adequately differentiated from their competitors, and they possess roughly 70% of the online auction market share. However, due to the relatively low switching costs and entry barriers inherent in a web market, eBay must continue to be rather defensive of their position, against current competition and potential new entrants. Current Competitors Amazon and Yahoo Auctions are the main competitors of eBay. Ubid. com has 14% of the market share, but they have a different niche than eBay by appealing to business-to-consumer transaction. Amazon may pose a threat to eBay’s utter dominance; they are consistently bringing retailers into e-commerce. However, this comes with a great burden. Whereas eBay has virtually no overhead, Amazon needs to store and move vast quantities of inventory. Currently, Amazon’s revenues are considerably greater than eBay’s (about twice as much), but their costs are so high that eBay’s annual profits are roughly ten times Amazon’s. Alternatively, Amazon might choose to expand its auction operations, trying to nudge eBay from its niche. Amazon would have to establish a network, a community, on the scale of eBay’s in order to challenge them directly. Although this could be time consuming and costly to implement, focusing on transactions in which they are merely the broker and bear no cost could greatly increase their long-term profits. Yahoo poses little threat to eBay. While they theoretically have potential for growth similar to Amazon, they lack Amazon’s reputation. They also lack the cost-free transactions in which eBay luxuriates. New Entrants Online auctioning doesn’t have high costs of entry, especially the way eBay operates: All a new entrant needs is merchant software; there is no need for warehouses or expensive machinery. However, many companies have tried to enter this lucrative market and have failed. New entry is difficult because eBay has an enormous community, which gives tremendous network value to both buyers and sellers. Any entrant would have to build up a network from scratch. Conceivably, if a new company entered a niche market, e. g. uctions of teenage clothing and cell phone accessories, they could survive, but such a market would likely be too small to gain any measurable market share. Alternately, a website that already has a large community would be able to enter more easily. For example, Craig’s List has a network of millions of users, who rely on it for matching them up with people who can fulfill their sp ecific needs. It would be simple enough to add an auction section to the site, and take advantage of this existing network to compete with eBay. Froogle, a new service from Google, may forever change the way online shopping is done. While it currently is a beta version, it looks to be a promising engine for online shoppers to quickly search nearly all online stores for the products they desire. While Froogle isn’t an entrant to the online auction market (yet), it is certainly the beginning of a powerful new substitute service. Froogle may be very dangerous to eBay for many reasons. Google already has a huge network of search-users and advertisers. If vendors (especially specialized vendors, as many on eBay are) can set up their own online stores and be found for free on Froogle, they have less of a reason to pay eBay for its high access. Bay certainly still has a lot going for it, (security and reputation) but may soon find its network challenged by Froogle users. eBay’s Response eBay recently started Business. eBay, a new business-to-business online auction that spans all sectors, from mining to farming. eBay is aware that they may need to accommodate larger retailers in order to grow, and to chal lenge Amazon’s growth in this direction. If Amazon decides to challenge eBay’s community appeal, then eBay must block this attempt any way they can. A simple method would be to start a price war. Bay’s costs are so negligible compared to Amazon’s that Amazon could not possibly survive a price war. EBay could almost give away auctions to sellers, whereas this sort of competition would bankrupt Amazon. If a new entrant emerges, eBay’s best bet is to rely on the value of their community. Even a company trying to enter into a niche market would have a difficult time building a network large enough to attract eBay customers. In the rare case of an established community site entering into online auctioning, eBay should engage in a price war if they believe this site’s community is comparable to theirs. Bay is famous for their extreme efficiency, and any entrant would likely be somewhat inefficient due to their inexperience. eBay’s best resp onse to Froogle is to assert their security and reputation to their users: If you buy from eBay, you know you will have a safe and fraud-free transaction, especially if you pay with PayPal. On the other hand, if someone buys from an online shop found on Froogle, he has no idea how reliable the vendor is, or if his credit card information will be safe. If buyers are reluctant to engage in potentially insecure transactions outside of eBay, buyers and sellers alike will continue to complete their transactions through eBay. Summary eBay virtually monopolizes the online auction market, due to their large network value, extremely low costs, reputation for security, and efficient operations. When confronted with competition, eBay either relies on its community niche, or buys out the competition (i. e. Half. com and PayPal). They have created a market where entry is very difficult, and competitors are relatively powerless, particularly given the threat of a price war. These advantages should ensure eBay’s continued domination of online auctions in the future. However, they should court larger retailers, as Amazon has, to expedite their growth. eBay is likely to stay the leading online auctioneer for quite some time, as long as they remain adaptable to the ever-dynamic online market. eBay has proven to be a successful chameleon in the past, making lucrative acquisitions and modifying its business model, depending on the state of the online market. As long as eBay continues to aggressively maintain its community and reputation of security, it will dominate the online auction market. References 1. Crockett, Roger O. â€Å"No Plastic? No Problem. † BusinessWeek | online. . October 23, 2000. 2. â€Å"eBay 2003 Annual Report. † . 3. Hof, Rob. â€Å"Meet eBay’s Auctioneer-in-Chief. † BusinessWeek online. . May 29, 2003. 4. Hof, Robert D. â€Å"The eBay Economy. † BusinessWeek | online. . August 25, 2005. 5. Lewis, Marilyn. â€Å"eBay and Amazon. † webservicespipeline. . December 22, 2004. 6. Perez, Juan Carlos. â€Å"Online auction providers grapple with fraud. † Computerworld. . Februrary 17, 2005. 7. Roberts, Paul. â€Å"Microsoft, eBay, Visa form Phish Report Network. † Computerworld. . February 14, 2005

Week 5 Psy/322

Case Study Analysis Psy/322 March 11, 2011 Japan to Apple’s iPhone The Apple iPhone did not make as big of a splash in Japan as Apple’s had hoped it would. The projection to sell a million iPhones in Japan unraveled and sales were very low. People of Japan were already aware of cell phones with a 3G network, which the faster network had been around for several years, much longer than the United States. A few problems that Japan had with the Apple iPhone were the touch screens, the iPhone were not as advanced as what they could already get in Japan, and the iPhone could not purchase train passes as the other phones did. Emoji†, clip art that is used to create a more interesting and creative e-mail was also an application that Apple could not offer. Citizens of Japan have high complex standards and when it comes to technology Japan is known for being well head of its time. The iPhone just did not stand up to what Japan already had in their back pocket. Cell phone us ers in Japan are infatuated with photos, video games, and high light features. Apple iPhone could not compete with what a market already established in Japan from other cell phone makers. The competitors had already offered Japan everything they needed.Japan made a mistake in trying to market the Apple iPhone in Japan at the time they did. In research they should have seen that they didn’t have everything that the Japanese wanted in a cell phone. Knowing Japan already had a 3G network that should have told Apple it would not be a new technology for the country. The people of this culture wanted everything at their fingertips and Apple didn’t have all they wanted. The Apple computers did well in Japan due to the technology is in the running with the other computers and they are similar.IPod also did well in Japan markets and that was due to the product being affordable, slim, and available to the people of Japan. Pricing and the cells phone plans in Japan are very compe titive and equates to low monthly expense for cell phones. The iPhones average monthly start around $60 dollars, which is much higher than competitors. The United States pays on average around $80 to $100 dollars for an iPhone plan. Many people of Japan also purchase their phones to use and the iPhone does not come cheap hen purchased. A large number of Japanese live with only a cell phone, so that cell phone needs to be everything in one. People of Japan do not want to use their cell phone as a personal computer and the problem with the iPhone is Apple relies on computers for syncing media and involving updates of software from the computer. ITunes is an example of an application that would require updates from a computer over time. Cell phones in Japan are about fashion as well and who has the most state of the art phone.Japan is so advanced with their technology that something new is coming out every day, so carrying around a cell phone that has been out for a year is unacceptabl e. The technology is consistently getting better and better, which the United States fall further behind. Apple did not grasp the cross-cultural concept and get an international perspective prior to marketing the iPhone. Apple also should have researched the marketing mix for the country. Price would be to high for the iPhone due to what Japan already had in service.The product did not have everything the consumer wanted on the product that would entice the consumer to purchase it. The place Apple wanted to move the product, which was Japan, already had the 3G network in place. Apple really did not have anything to promote that was different in the markets of Japan. The sheer functionality of the iPhone just did not make sense out of Japan. Mickey and Shark Fin Soup Shark fin soup is a popular soup item of Chinese culture that is usually served at big events such as weddings and banquets.This soup is considered a luxury item and the soup may cost up to $150 dollars a bowl. The soup originally came from the Ming Dynasty many years ago and is an important part of the celebrations. When Disney wanted to serve the soup to the guests that were going to have their wedding at Disney Hong Kong, advocates came out to protest serving the soup. There is an international concern over the sustainability and welfare of the sharks that will be used to make the delicacy. There is also concern that because the cost for the soup is so high there will be a higher demand for the soup.If the soup is in such high demand them the environmentalist have concern the sharks will become endangered. The Disney Company was trying to reach out to the people of Hong Kong and show an appreciation for the culture of their country. Disney wanted to offer the same items that other companies could offer to the people of Hong Kong. If Disney does not offer the Shark Fin Soup then the customers approaching Disney for their wedding will go somewhere else to receive the goods and service they want fo r the celebration.With the guidelines that Disney would have strict guidelines being such a large corporation, they would not be smuggling in sharks to create the soup. Disney chose not to serve the shark fin soup due to the pressure of the environmentalists. Much of the pressure came from the hits to Disney’s corporate image. Disney did careful research and determined that the environmentalists had a valid point that linking shark declines in the largest shark species.Disney felt the company needed to have the right balance with the cultural of Hong Kong and the conservation of the sharks. If I were a member of the Disney management team at the Walt Disney Company, I would not have the Shark fin soup on the menu for wedding in Hong Kong. Disney would lose more money by people boycotting the company then they would if Disney did not serve the soup. It is important for companies to research and know what they are dealing with before they make decisions that will affect a large group of people or animals as in this case.There is so much more money to be made through ticket sales and all the other foods that are offered by Disney. The damage that might have been done by making the decision to keep the shark fin soup on the menu would truly out way the damage if they took the soup off the menu. References: Keith Bradsher, â€Å"Chinese Delicacy Has Disney in Turbulent Waters, †New York Times, June 17, 2009, C1, C7 Yukari Iwatani Kane, â€Å"Apple’s Latest iPhone Sees Slow Japan Sales, â€Å"Wall Street Journal, September 15, 2008, B3

Beethovens Symphony No. 9 Essays - Music, Symphony No. 9

Beethoven's Symphony No. 9 Essays - Music, Symphony No. 9 Beethoven's Symphony No. 9 Beethoven's Symphony No. 9 Choral' The 9th Symphony is an amazing piece of music. From the slow opening, to its quick ascent to a powerful clash of instruments, the entire piece is captivating. The incredible part about the entire piece is that from the beginning to the end there is a contrast between soft and loud, always dueling for time. Either there is a strong controlling element running through the music or there is a soft easy melody. The dualism between the deeper instruments playing in contrast to the softer woodwinds makes for an interesting listen. Each time that I have listened to this piece I am always hearing different pieces that I had not heard the time before. The trouble I have had with the piece is that I have a hard time listening to the piece as a whole. Instead I end up hearing either the high pieces or the low pieces, rather than being able to capture the two together as interconnected pieces. Yet, with the excerpts that I have been able to connect the two parts, their differences help unite them into an incredible piece of music. From the onset of the symphony, it appears that the entire piece is based around the conclusion, being Ode to Joy. It seems like everything is just getting ready to build and build into the climax. There being smaller climaxes along the way, but for the most part it is solely preparing the listener for Ode to Joy. The exciting part about the entire piece is that at no time does the listener become lulled into the music and become withdrawn from the music, rather the listener is always attentive to the music waiting and expecting the next note or series of notes, wondering what the composer and conductor have in store. Joseph Glazar November 15, 2000 William Tell This piece by Rossini is a rather devious piece of music. For the most part the listener is put into a position that the entire piece will be rather melodic and peaceful, but in an instant all of that changes and throws the listener for a complete loop. As the Overture warms the listener, one begins to get the idea that a sense of nature is present in the music, with the little chirps from the softer instruments. As the listener continues there begins a low, but ever present rising in intensity coming from all the instruments. From what seemed to be a careless peaceful tone, becomes a menacing and powerful thrust of music. Moreover, as soon as the listener becomes accustomed to the intensity of the music, the composer once again changes it up and softens the mood again. The listener is continuously taken on a roller coaster ride of excitement. The highlight for this listener was the part of the Overture that had been used as the anthem for the Lone Ranger. It is a great example for me of how music can create a vivid memory of life, with it as the background. I have always loved this piece because of how dynamic it was and because of its connection to me as a child. My parents were always trying to find ways for me to enjoy classical music as a child, without creating a distaste for the music. From that I was able to grow into the music. I love the entire piece, and only listen to it in its entirety. The movement through out the piece is very perky, with a little bit of calmness. The listener does not have the opportunity to become complacent with a melody, before it is quickly changed into something that makes one's heart pound. This is an absolutely incredible piece of music. Joseph Glazar November 22, 2000 European History Bibliography The novel that I read for historical reference was that of Charles Darwin's Descent of Man and Selection in Relation to Sex. A.L. Burt Company, Publishers, New York. 1871. p713

International Business Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 4500 words - 2

International Business - Essay Example Because of this technological advancement and penetration, the access to information have increased and consumers are becoming more aware in terms of their needs and wants. Well informed consumers in the markets of the developing as well as the developed nations are becoming more demanding in regards to their needs for various products and services. Witnessing a strong business opportunity, organizations around the world are increasingly focusing on catering to the needs of the well informed consumers in various markets and hence are naturally venturing into many foreign markets. In this particular assignment, the focus is on US based retailer Wal-Mart and its outcomes when it ventured into different foreign markets. Wal-Mart is a US based retail giant, which started its business operations in the year 1962, in Arkansas, USA. The company had a humble beginning under the Sam Walton, who started the retail business from a very basic level. With the passage of time, the firm has grown expansively in the domestic American market as well as the multiple international markets. The company is widely known in its business markets for its implementation of a every day low pricing (EDLP) model. In regards to the current times, the company’s financial performance is highly impressive. As of the year 2013, net sales for the US market stood at over 274 billion USD while for the international market, it stood at over 135 billion USD (Walmart.com, 2013). In this particular assignment, the focus is on the US retailer’s mode of expansion into the various international markets around the world, and the associated successes and failures in those markets. The US based retail organization Wal-Mart has grown steadily over the years and in the course of responding to different dynamics in its domestic market, has ventured in to multiple international markets around the world. It is important to highlight that for a business organization to

Finance- Global Stock Markets Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Finance- Global Stock Markets - Essay Example The Dow Jones low point was USD10,608 and its high point was USD 11,439 a fluctuation of only USD 831, or slightly less than 1%. The change from the first point (September 20) to the last date charted (November 22) was even lower. The Israeli stock exchange rose from USD 34,361 to USD 35, 348, an increase of USD 987. At the same time the Dow Jones rose from USD 10,608 to USD 11,083.75, an increase of only USD 475.75. This means that if an individual had invested USD 100,000 across the board in each stock exchange at the end of the period their Israeli investment would be worth USD 104,597.90 while their Dow Jones investment would have increased to USD 104, 484.80. Over a period of less than three months this is not an inconsiderable profit, particularly if it were to be increased by a factor of five to make it roughly equivalent to one year (as opposed to ten weeks). On the other hand, it demonstrates a remarkable disconnect between the markets and current events. This was no ordinary period in either the United States or Israel yet, viewed over two months, the stock exchanges slowly, but reasonably steadily, increased in value. In the United States a mid-term election campaign was waged, that included cataclysmic predictions of a Democrat debacle and featured the wild card of the tea partiers. In fact the Dow Jones increased steadily from September until the election: The campaign uncertainty and predictions of disaster for the Presidents party had no negative impact on the stock market. On October 28, 2010, only days before the election New York Times columnist Paul Krugman wrote, â€Å"future historians will probably look back at the 2010 election as a catastrophe for America, one that condemned the nation to years of political chaos and economic weakness.† His piece concluded with this warning: â€Å"So if the elections go as expected next week, here’s my advice: Be